The shifting geopolitical landscape has left Ukraine in a precarious position as it attempts to negotiate peace with Russia amid dwindling Western support. In 2022, peace was on the table, but Kyiv walked away, unwilling to accept what it saw as Russia’s unacceptable demands. Now, three years and countless casualties later, Ukraine finds itself in a weakened position, forced to navigate a new reality where its most powerful backer, the United States, has made a dramatic policy reversal under President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Russia, emboldened by territorial gains and Western disunity, appears ready to drive a harder bargain than ever before.
Following Russia’s invasion in February 2022, both nations engaged in peace talks, which continued into May before falling apart. Zelenskyy rejected Russia’s demands, which included Ukraine’s disarmament, neutrality, and recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, calling them ultimatums rather than negotiations. At the time, Ukraine had battlefield momentum in regions like Kharkiv and Kherson, and Western military aid was flowing in. Kyiv, along with its allies, believed that prolonging the fight would yield a more favorable outcome than negotiating under pressure. However, the war dragged on, with devastating losses on both sides, while Ukraine’s long-term strategic position eroded.
Fast-forward to 2025, and Ukraine now faces a far different reality. Trump, fulfilling his campaign promise to cut spending on foreign conflicts, has abruptly suspended military aid to Kyiv following a heated public spat with Zelenskyy. Even before their confrontation, Trump’s administration had already begun backchannel discussions with Russia in Saudi Arabia, excluding Ukraine from the talks. Kyiv’s anger at being sidelined was evident, with Zelenskyy stating that Ukraine would not accept any deal in which it was not a participant. However, the message from Washington was clear: the US is no longer willing to bankroll Ukraine’s war effort indefinitely.
With America pulling back, Ukraine turned to Europe for support, but the response was underwhelming. On March 2, European leaders (except for Italy and Hungary) met in London to reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine. However, while the EU announced an 800-billion-euro defense initiative called ‘ReArm Europe,’ it offered little immediate relief to Kyiv’s military needs. Recognizing the limits of European support, Zelenskyy quickly shifted to a more conciliatory tone, proposing a new framework for a partial ceasefire. In a March 4 statement, he indicated that Ukraine was open to prisoner exchanges and a ceasefire agreement that would ban long-range strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure. His proposal was seen as an effort to keep negotiations alive while minimizing further territorial losses.
Russia, meanwhile, sees the situation as a major strategic victory. Moscow has gained approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, secured a de facto block on Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, and now faces a divided and hesitant Western alliance. Kremlin officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, have praised Trump’s decision to cut support, arguing that the US has finally recognized the futility of arming Ukraine. However, Peskov has made it clear that any peace talks are unlikely to materialize soon, suggesting that Russia may now demand even harsher terms than it did in 2022.
Analysts believe Moscow is in no hurry to end the war, as it benefits from Ukraine’s growing isolation. Ukrainian-American journalist Anne Applebaum noted that "every crack in US-Ukraine unity is an opportunity for Putin," adding that Russia thrives on Kyiv’s vulnerabilities. Political commentators argue that Ukraine's ability to secure a favorable deal is significantly weaker than it was in 2022. Mark Galeotti, a British expert on Russian affairs, described the Trump-Zelenskyy rift as a "gift to Putin," as it weakens Kyiv’s bargaining position.
The key question now is how much Ukraine will have to concede. With Russian forces continuing to consolidate their gains, Ukraine’s ability to demand the withdrawal of Russian troops seems increasingly unlikely. Experts warn that Moscow may seek permanent recognition of its territorial claims, enforce restrictions on Ukraine’s military capabilities, and dictate terms that limit Ukraine’s future alliances. The contrast between today’s negotiations and those of 2022 is stark: then, Ukraine had leverage and Western backing; now, it faces mounting pressure to settle for terms that may undermine its sovereignty.
Zelenskyy’s challenge is balancing the urgency of securing peace with the risk of appearing to surrender to Russian demands. While some in Kyiv believe a negotiated settlement is the only viable option, hardliners argue that accepting Russia’s conditions would validate its invasion and betray Ukraine’s war efforts. As Western support continues to waver, the cost of negotiation for Ukraine is likely to rise, and the world watches to see just how much Kyiv will be forced to give up.
