Amid the growing political uncertainty in Bangladesh, conflicting reports have only deepened the confusion. Sources in Dhaka neither confirm nor deny that significant developments are underway, yet speculation continues to mount. As rumors of a possible coup swirl—claims that have been firmly denied by the military establishment—key figures remain at the heart of this unfolding crisis. General Waker-uz-Zaman, the Army Chief, and Muhammad Yunus, the head of the caretaker government, are playing crucial roles, while student leaders and radical elements continue to exert influence. And then there is the absent but ever-present figure of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, whose shadow looms large over the country’s fate.
Despite the uncertainty, one fact remains clear: for many Bangladeshis, the Army is seen as the most neutral and secular institution, a stabilizing force amid the erosion of trust in the judiciary and executive branches. However, its role in shaping the country’s political future remains highly debated.
Bangladesh was thrust into turmoil following last year’s anti-quota protests, which escalated into widespread calls for Hasina’s removal. The situation reached a boiling point on August 5, when Hasina was forced to flee Dhaka, triggering days of chaos. With law enforcement agencies unable or unwilling to maintain order, mobs took control, and police personnel abandoned their posts. Members and supporters of Hasina’s Awami League (AL), along with religious minorities, bore the brunt of the violence.
Since then, the Army-backed caretaker government under Muhammad Yunus has struggled to restore normalcy. The initial hopes that the transition would bring stability have faded, replaced by a growing sense of unease. The past few weeks have seen a flurry of political developments, raising fresh concerns about the future of democracy in Bangladesh.
Yunus has announced that general elections will be held in late 2025 or early 2026, though the timeline remains subject to electoral reforms. Reaching a consensus on these reforms, however, appears increasingly difficult. The main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), along with student leaders, has demanded an earlier election date in December 2025. Meanwhile, Information Adviser Mahfuj Alam has stated that elections will proceed as scheduled in December, adding to the ongoing uncertainty.
As speculation intensifies and unverified reports hint at major shifts in power, here are five critical aspects to consider when assessing the rapidly evolving situation in Bangladesh:
1. PROTESTING STUDENTS FORM A POLITICAL PARTY, WHILE HASINA'S AWAMI LEAGUE FACES POLL BAN
The student leaders who spearheaded the protests against Sheikh Hasina have successfully transitioned from an activist movement into a formal political entity. In February, they launched the Jatiya Nagorik Party (National Citizens' Party, or NCP), signaling a fundamental shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape.
Key figures within the NCP, such as Nahid Islam, Hasnat Abdullah, Sarjis Alam, and Akhter Hossen, see an opportunity to redefine Bangladesh’s governance. However, the group remains divided on major issues, including its stance on the Awami League. While the NCP has advocated for banning the AL from upcoming elections, Yunus has indicated that there are no such plans in place.
Speculation has grown over the possibility of a "refined Awami League" emerging from the current crisis. The idea gained traction after Hasnat Abdullah claimed that a faction was being quietly formed behind the scenes. The Army dismissed these claims as "laughable," but political observers remain unconvinced, noting that Bangladesh’s history is rife with political realignments orchestrated by unseen hands.
2. MUJIB'S LEGACY UNDER ATTACK AMID THE RISE OF RADICALS
The collapse of the Hasina government has emboldened radical Islamist elements, leading to an aggressive erasure of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s legacy. Since August 2024, statues, portraits, and anything remotely associated with Bangladesh’s founding father have been systematically destroyed.
The interim government’s decision to lift the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami in August 2024 was seen as a major victory for Islamist forces. Radical groups have since seized the opportunity to assert their influence. In March, the banned outfit Hizb-ut-Tahrir held a massive rally in Dhaka, openly calling for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate. The event, marked by chants of "Khilafat, Khilafat," underscored the resurgence of fundamentalist movements.
In a further sign of the shifting political climate, the judiciary has granted relief to extremists with known anti-India links. Abdus Salam Pintu, a former BNP minister accused of financing Pakistan-based terror networks, has been released. Meanwhile, Jasimuddin Rahmani, a radical cleric, has called for "jihad" against India, specifically targeting Jammu and Kashmir.
The impact on religious minorities, particularly Hindus, has been devastating. Over 2,000 attacks on Hindu communities were reported in the immediate aftermath of Hasina’s ousting, a grim reminder of the vulnerability of non-Muslim populations in times of political upheaval.
3. SHEIKH HASINA’S AWAMI LEAGUE BEGINS TO RESURFACE
While Hasina remains in exile, the Awami League is attempting to regain its footing. The once-silent AL leadership is now speaking out, signaling a potential return to political relevance.
Hasina has called upon her supporters to mobilize, and some party leaders have suggested that a comeback could happen within months. PTI reported in March that several AL functionaries, including Hasina’s son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, Vice President of USA Awami League Rabbi Alam, and Joint General Secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim, are actively working toward restoring the party’s influence.
However, these efforts have met with violent resistance. Rival groups, including the BNP and Jamaat, have clashed with Awami League supporters at rallies. Reports from The Hindu indicate that an AL gathering in Dhaka this month was forcefully disrupted, a clear sign that opposition to Hasina’s return remains strong.
Adding to the intrigue, Hasnat Abdullah claimed that senior military officials approached him with an "Indian plan" to rehabilitate the Awami League. He alleged that General Waker-uz-Zaman met him at Dhaka Cantonment on March 11 to discuss the matter. The Army has categorically denied these claims, calling them "immature and baseless."
4. REPORTS OF PRO-PAKISTAN ARMY OFFICERS UNDER SURVEILLANCE
Despite its reputation as a secular institution, the Army has not been immune to allegations of radical infiltration. Earlier this month, Lt Gen Faizur Rahman was placed under surveillance for allegedly conspiring to stage a coup against General Waker-uz-Zaman. Rahman, a known Jamaat sympathizer, reportedly met with divisional commanders in an attempt to secure support.
The Army Chief’s secretariat quickly intervened, issuing a warning to top officials. While the ISPR has dismissed reports of a command breakdown as "deliberate disinformation," concerns about pro-Pakistan elements within the military persist.
5. COUP RUMORS INTENSIFY AMIDST MILITARY MEETINGS
The most alarming development came after a meeting between General Waker-uz-Zaman and student leaders, followed by reports of troop movements in Dhaka. Sources have suggested that the military could be preparing to remove Muhammad Yunus and assume direct control of the government.
On March 25, the ISPR once again denied coup rumors, calling them "false and fabricated." However, with the Army increasing its presence in Dhaka, and tensions reaching new heights, it remains to be seen whether Bangladesh is heading toward another military intervention.
As the situation continues to evolve, one thing is certain: Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. The coming months will determine whether the country can navigate this crisis through democratic means or if it will succumb to further instability.
