US President Donald Trump’s administration deported 37,660 people during his first month in office, according to previously unpublished US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data. This figure falls significantly below the monthly average of 57,000 removals and returns recorded during the last full year of Joe Biden’s presidency. While the numbers appear lower than expected, senior Trump administration officials and immigration experts predict that deportations will rise in the coming months as Trump implements more aggressive policies, expands enforcement operations, and pursues new international agreements aimed at streamlining removals.
DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin suggested that the higher deportation figures during Biden’s tenure may have been "artificially high" due to an unprecedented surge in illegal border crossings, which created a larger pool of migrants eligible for swift deportation. Trump, who built much of his campaign rhetoric around a hardline stance on immigration, promised to execute the most extensive deportation operation in US history — a goal that early data suggests could be challenging to achieve, especially given the complex logistics and resource limitations involved.
A significant shakeup in ICE leadership followed these initial numbers. Caleb Vitello, the acting director of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), was reassigned, reportedly due to a failure to meet the administration’s deportation targets. Sources within the administration suggested that Vitello’s reassignment signals a push for faster, more forceful enforcement efforts under new leadership.
Trump’s strategy includes forging new agreements with key countries in Central and South America — particularly Guatemala, El Salvador, Panama, and Costa Rica — to accept deportees from other nations as well. These agreements are designed to circumvent traditional diplomatic hurdles and ensure faster removals, even when the deportees are not citizens of the receiving country. The US military has already played a significant role, assisting with over a dozen deportation flights to Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Ecuador, Peru, and even India. In a particularly controversial move, the administration has also transported Venezuelan migrants to the US naval base in Guantanamo Bay, where Trump announced plans to hold up to 30,000 detainees, despite strong opposition from human rights and civil liberties organizations.
Military involvement in deportations could expand further, leveraging the Pentagon’s vast logistical capabilities and funding. Adam Isacson, a security expert with the Washington Office on Latin America think tank, noted that the military’s ability to mobilize quickly, coupled with its substantial budget, could allow for a rapid scale-up of deportation flights and detention operations if the administration pushes for it.
The administration is also systematically rolling back Biden-era policies that limited immigration enforcement. The Justice Department recently issued a memo permitting ICE officers to make arrests at US immigration courts, undoing a previous restriction designed to protect migrants attending their hearings. Additionally, the US State Department has designated Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang and seven other criminal organizations as terrorist groups. This classification enables the administration to label suspected members and affiliates as deportable under US immigration law — a move that could significantly broaden the number of people subject to removal.
Trump’s efforts include pulling agents from ICE’s investigative branch, as well as personnel from the Justice Department, IRS, and State Department, to bolster enforcement efforts. Jessica Vaughan, policy director at the Center for Immigration Studies — a group that advocates for lower immigration levels — said these specialized agents could help crack down on employers who hire undocumented workers and assist in locating and arresting individuals with outstanding deportation orders. She acknowledged that such cases are more complex, often requiring extensive investigative groundwork and coordination between agencies.
In the first three weeks of Trump’s term, ICE reported roughly 14,000 arrests — averaging 667 per day — more than double the daily average from Biden’s last year. However, this pace still falls short of Trump’s campaign promises to deport millions. Arrests initially surged to between 800 and 1,200 per day during Trump’s first week, but numbers tapered off as detention facilities reached capacity and agents returned to their home regions after temporary deployments to high-target cities. Isacson compared the situation to “turning a supertanker,” pointing out that the civilian immigration enforcement system can only scale up operations so quickly due to staffing, legal, and logistical constraints.
DHS data reveals that during Trump’s first month, ICE arrests of individuals with criminal charges or convictions doubled compared to the same period the previous year. However, limited detention space remains a critical bottleneck. ICE currently holds around 41,100 detainees, just shy of the 41,500 beds funded by Congress. Of those detained, roughly 19,000 were arrested by ICE directly, while 22,000 were apprehended by US border authorities. Notably, 2,800 of those arrested by ICE had no prior criminal record — a significant increase from the 858 non-criminal detainees reported in mid-January, before Trump assumed office.
The administration’s push for tougher immigration enforcement aligns with broader Republican efforts to overhaul border security and immigration policy. Last week, the Republican-led Senate approved a sweeping $340 billion bill over four years to fund border security enhancements, expand deportation capacity, deregulate energy, and bolster military spending. However, the party remains divided on how to proceed with the funding package. Trump is pushing to link the funding bill to tax cuts — a move that has sparked internal disputes among Republican lawmakers.
As Trump accelerates his immigration crackdown, the long-term success of his efforts will likely hinge on whether his administration can overcome operational challenges, expand detention capacity, and maintain cooperation from foreign governments. The evolving political landscape, combined with legal battles over the administration’s more controversial measures — like the use of Guantanamo Bay for migrant detention — could further complicate Trump’s ambitious deportation agenda.
