The current shift in US trade policy, spearheaded by Donald Trump’s administration, signals a tightening stance specifically toward China while offering strategic openings for countries like India. Here's a breakdown of what it all means:
4. Implications for India
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Short-Term: Indian businesses avoid immediate tariff shocks and can maintain trade momentum with the US.
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Medium to Long-Term: India is being seen as a strategic alternative to China. Companies seeking to escape high tariffs may explore relocating manufacturing to India, especially in electronics, apparel, and automotive parts.
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Trade Deal on Track: The bilateral trade agreement (BTA), discussed during PM Modi’s US visit, is progressing. Both sides have already agreed to the terms of reference, and a final deal is expected by autumn 2025. This could lock in long-term trade benefits for India.
5. What India Needs to Watch
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The US still sees India as a “big abuser” of trade ties, so concessions might come with strings attached.
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Sectors not covered by the exemption (e.g., textiles, steel) may still face scrutiny unless they’re part of the new deal.
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India must navigate this diplomatically, leveraging its strategic importance while avoiding entanglement in US-China rivalries.
In essence, Trump’s tariff storm has created global trade turbulence — but India, with careful navigation and timely agreements, might just find itself in calmer waters than most.