Chinese President Xi Jinping’s remarks on a ‘dragon-elephant tango’ to describe India-China relations come at a crucial juncture as both countries attempt to reset their ties after a prolonged freeze due to the military standoff in eastern Ladakh since 2020. In a congratulatory message to President Droupadi Murmu on the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two nations, Xi emphasized the importance of India and China being partners in mutual achievement. His statement, carried by China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency, underscored the need for both countries to promote a multipolar world and greater democracy in international relations.
Xi’s comments signal a renewed diplomatic push to normalize relations, particularly as border tensions gradually ease. He highlighted the historical significance of both India and China as ancient civilizations and major developing nations, noting that both are at a critical stage in their modernization efforts. Xi reaffirmed his willingness to collaborate with India in strengthening exchanges across various sectors, deepening coordination on global affairs, and ensuring peace along the shared border. He also stressed that stability in India-China relations would contribute to global peace and prosperity.
Historical Context of India-China Relations
India and China, despite their shared civilizational heritage, have had a tumultuous relationship shaped by historical conflicts, diplomatic efforts, and economic competition. The two nations fought a war in 1962 over border disputes, leading to a deep mistrust that persists to this day. The border issue remains unresolved, with multiple face-offs occurring in the past decades, including incidents in Doklam (2017) and Galwan Valley (2020).
While tensions have frequently escalated, there have also been periods of diplomatic engagement. The 1988 visit of then-Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to China marked a turning point in bilateral relations, leading to the establishment of confidence-building measures (CBMs) along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Subsequent agreements in 1993, 1996, and 2005 were aimed at preventing skirmishes. However, the Galwan clashes in 2020 shattered the fragile peace and set relations back significantly.
Diplomatic Engagements and Border Tensions
President Murmu reciprocated Xi’s message by calling for a stable, predictable, and friendly bilateral relationship, emphasizing that a sound partnership between the two nations would benefit not just their own populations but also the wider world. Her remarks suggest that India remains open to constructive engagement with China despite unresolved border disputes. The significance of her message lies in its emphasis on mutual respect and trust as the foundation for cooperation, particularly in economic, trade, and cultural exchanges.
Apart from Xi and Murmu, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang also exchanged congratulatory messages on the anniversary of diplomatic ties. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun confirmed the exchange, indicating that diplomatic communication remains active at the highest levels. Modi’s message focused on the necessity of maintaining stability, strengthening trade relations, and enhancing people-to-people ties. His statement also highlighted the importance of resolving border tensions through dialogue and diplomacy, a stance that has been India’s consistent approach in dealing with China.
In terms of border security, progress continues on the de-escalation process in eastern Ladakh. China had earlier stated that it was cooperating with India to implement resolutions aimed at ending the standoff. Following the October 2023 agreement on disengagement at Demchok and Depsang, both countries have maintained a steady pace in reducing troop deployments in the region. The ongoing withdrawal is a significant step in resolving tensions that peaked after the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020. However, challenges remain in addressing the broader border disputes along the LAC, where both sides continue to maintain military presence at strategic points.
Geopolitical Implications and Strategic Competition
While China has called for stronger ties, India remains cautious, especially given China’s increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. India has strengthened its partnerships with the United States, Japan, and Australia through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which Beijing perceives as an attempt to counter its influence.
At the same time, both nations are key members of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), where they collaborate on issues like trade, counterterrorism, and regional security. Despite their differences, India and China share common interests in pushing for a multipolar world order, particularly in reducing Western dominance in global financial institutions.
China’s close ties with Pakistan further complicate relations. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), runs through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, a region India claims as its own. India has consistently opposed CPEC, viewing it as a violation of its sovereignty. Meanwhile, China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean, including military bases in Djibouti and port agreements in Sri Lanka, has heightened India’s security concerns.
Economic Relations and Trade Dependencies
Despite political tensions, economic ties between the two nations remain strong. China is one of India’s largest trading partners, with bilateral trade crossing $136 billion in 2023. However, the trade balance heavily favors China, as India imports a vast range of goods, including electronics, machinery, and pharmaceutical ingredients.
In recent years, India has taken steps to reduce its dependence on Chinese imports by promoting domestic manufacturing under the "Make in India" initiative. The Indian government has also tightened regulations on Chinese investments, particularly in sensitive sectors like telecommunications, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure. Several Chinese apps, including TikTok and PUBG Mobile, were banned in India due to security concerns following the Galwan clashes.
At the same time, Chinese companies continue to have a strong presence in India, particularly in consumer electronics and the automobile industry. Brands like Xiaomi, Vivo, and Oppo dominate the Indian smartphone market, while Chinese investments in startups like Paytm and Byju’s underscore economic interdependence. While New Delhi seeks to diversify trade partnerships, complete economic decoupling from China remains a challenge.
Future Prospects: Competition or Cooperation?
As the world shifts towards new geopolitical alignments, the future of India-China relations remains uncertain. On the one hand, continued economic engagement and multilateral cooperation suggest a pathway for stability. On the other, unresolved border disputes, China’s strategic ties with Pakistan, and its expanding influence in the Indian Ocean pose long-term challenges for India.
India’s stance on China has been cautious but firm. While emphasizing diplomatic engagement, New Delhi has also strengthened its defense capabilities along the LAC, investing in infrastructure development and advanced surveillance mechanisms. The Indian government has made it clear that peace along the border is a prerequisite for normalizing relations, a position reiterated by both Modi and Jaishankar in their interactions with Chinese officials.
According to India’s Ministry of External Affairs, the border de-escalation process is proceeding as scheduled. While challenges remain in fully restoring trust between the two nations, these diplomatic efforts suggest a shared commitment to preventing further deterioration in relations. The latest developments indicate a cautious but steady thaw in ties, driven by mutual economic and strategic interests. However, the long-term stability of India-China relations will depend on how effectively both sides manage lingering border disputes and competing regional ambitions.
As the Lok Sabha gears up for this crucial session, all eyes will be on the proceedings to see how the debate unfolds and whether any last-minute compromises or changes are introduced to address the concerns of opposition leaders. The coming months will be critical in determining whether this ‘dragon-elephant tango’ will lead to a lasting rapprochement or remain a delicate balancing act in a complex geopolitical landscape.
